Florida Derby 2006 Race Analysis
By Greg Melikov

This year’s Florida Derby, I’m sorry to say, lives up to its date – April Fool’s Day. That’s because the prep is either too close or not far enough away from the Kentucky Derby.

When Gulfstream Park’s showcase event is held in March, 3-year-olds heading to Churchill Downs can fit in another meaningful prep. Because the $1 million race has been staged five weeks before the first Saturday in May, top contenders often skip it. History proves that’s the way to go.

No horse that trained up to the Kentucky Derby for five weeks has smelled the roses in a half-century. Remember Needles? He did after taking the Florida Derby. From Monarchos in ‘01 back to Needles in ‘56, they and six others won both when Gulfstream’s big race was in March.

Only Northern Dancer in ‘64 and Tim Tam in ‘58 accomplished the feat when the Florida Derby was in April. However, Northern Dancer captured the Blue Grass two weeks before winning at Churchill Downs and Tim Tam took the Kentucky Derby Trial with less rest.

The 55th running of the Florida Derby, scheduled for Saturday, hasn’t attracted the cream of the sophomore crop. The most talented appears to be unbeaten Barbaro, trained by Mike Matz. However, three victories were on the turf.

Barbaro, ridden by Edgar Prado, did win the $150,000 Holy Bull Stakes on Feb. 4, covering the 1 1/8 miles in the good time of 1:49 1/5 on a sloppy Gulfstream surface. He’s the only horse in the field with two graded stakes victories at the distance.

Also-rans will try him again in the Florida Derby, but I believe class will tell.Who will be runner-up is a tossup. Trainer Nick Zito’s Great Point, three-quarters of a length back in second in the Holy Bull, was 10th and last in the Fountain of Youth (FOY) on March 4. Jeremy Rose retains the mount. The horse’s lone victory came last year when he broke his maiden.

Kiaran McLaughlin’s Flashy Bull, third in the Holy Bull beaten a length and a neck, was moved up to second behind First Samurai when Corinthian was disqualified to third in the FOY. Rafael Bejarano climbs back aboard. The horse is one for eight.

Todd Pletcher trainee Sunriver, a distant seventh in the Holy Bull, did bounce back on the FOY card to win an allowance race at 1 1/8 miles guided by John Velazquez. The runner-up was High Blues, trained by David Paulus and ridden by Cornelio Velasquez, another starter.

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